Callum Hudson-Odoi must leave Chelsea for Bayern Munich if he wants to fulfil his enormous potential

Callum Hudson-Odoi
The faltering careers of many forgotten Chelsea youth prospects should serve as a stark warning to Callum Hudson-Odoi. 

Callum Hudson-Odoi is the latest of England's fantastically talented young crop of footballers to be considering a move away from the bright lights of the Premier League to gain playing time abroad. A crazy man for sure - doesn't he know that the Premier League is football?

Bayern Munich are keen to pay £35million for a Chelsea player who has won the Under-17 World Cup and is clearly already good enough for the Europa League but who has only made four substitute Premier League appearances. 

Hudson-Odoi's career hinges on a key decision. Leave England, play for one of the biggest clubs in the world and play first team football... or stay and hope that one day, finally, soon, hopefully, Chelsea will put faith in one of their own academy players. He may be young but time waits for no man. A player of Hudson-Odoi's massive potential needs game time to progress.

What's a Hudson-Odoi to do?

Is Hudson-Odoi impatient? 

Eighteen year-old Jadon Sancho hadn't played a single game for Man City before he left them to join Borussia Dortmund in August 2017. He is currently joint-second for assists in the Bundesliga this season, has scored six goals and is the proud owner of an England cap. At the time, Guardiola didn't feel Sancho was ready. Sancho has since proved that he was. Hudson-Odoi is only eight months younger. 

Massive things are expected of Phil Foden, a player on the cusp of being a first team regular for Man City. He turns 19 in May having made eight league appearances this season (all from the bench) in addition to five substitute appearances last season - a total of 13 short league games. 

Compare Foden to Kai Havertz, a similar style of player, and (one of) the next big thing(s) in world football. Already capped for Germany, he has made 17 league appearances (all starts) this season for Bayer Leverkusen, scoring six goals. That's in addition to the 30 league games he played last season and the 24 in 2016/17 - a total of 71 Bundesliga appearances and 13 goals. Havertz is 19 years old. The two players were born a year and a month apart.

It's impossible to ignore: young players are given more chances to play abroad.

Why it's important to play now

Great players (those who regularly start games in the Champions League, for example) tend to be first team regulars at around 20, having played about 50 first team games at lower league level. Some, like Wayne Rooney, Lionel Messi and Raheem Sterling, make those appearances for the first team.

Those fall into the rare category of players who are so good at 17 would be perverse not to play them - Michael Owen won the Premier League Golden Boot at 18, for example. Exceptional talents tend to break through early. By definition, not every player is exceptional. 

The youngest average age of a Premier League winning side was Chelsea's 25 years and 249 days in 2005. The only under-21s in that team: Filipe Oliveira (who?), Robert Huth, Steven Watt (a defender, two appearances), Anthony Grant (midfielder, one appearance), Glen Johnson and Arjen Robben. Of those, only Robben could be classed as an elite tier footballer at the time (sorry Huth and Johnson) or since.

The star players in that side had all broken into first teams at their original clubs by 20 years old. Frank Lampard was a in West Ham's first XI at 19, Joe Cole was 18, Claude Makelele was 19 at Nantes, Damien Duff was 18 and essential at Blackburn Rovers. Didier Drogba is the exception that proves the rule - he was still playing in Ligue 2 at the age of 23, and didn't start scoring bucket loads of goals until 25 at Guingamp.

Based on the past careers of top level players of a similar position, if Hudson-Odoi is to be considered good enough to star in a league-winning side at any point in his career, he needs to have played at least 20 first team league games by the time his birthday comes round in May. As it stands he has a total of four substitute appearances.

Why it's so difficult to make it in England

Pep Guardiola has often spoken of a need for England to introduce B teams, something so anti-English he'd get a better reception from lower league fans were he to slag off Gareth Southgate's waistcoat and spray-paint 'Pep was here' on the side of Accrington Stanley's stadium. 

The problem for clubs in England is that to give young players competitive experience is to risk them making mistakes. This means lost points, which leads to missed objectives, which leads to sacked managers. Promising talents can be sent out on loan but then the club has little control over what they are taught. Some players prosper, others get lost in the forest.

Harry Kane didn't regularly start for Spurs until he was 21, but that was after 71 league games on loan at Leyton Orient (League One), Millwall (Championship) and Leicester (Championship). Dele Alli had played 74 League One games for MK Dons before moving to Spurs aged 19. Both players had the mental fortitude to hack it in the lower leagues - others could easily be outmuscled, lose confidence and see their development falter as a result.

In Europe, things are different. Andres Iniesta - one of the greatest players of all time - gained experience and proved himself ready for Barca's first team by spending his teenage years playing for Barca B. In this situation, the club could coach him the way they wanted, ensure no bad habits were picked up from a manager with different ideas, and Iniesta could learn his trade at a genuinely competitive level without the inevitable mistakes he'd make costing the first team. It's win-win. 

Hudson-Odoi could learn more theory and develop better technical skills by training alongside Eden Hazard and Willian under the coaching of a top-tier manager like Maurizio Sarri, but the key trend among players who get to the top level is that they have played competitive football during their late teens.

If you're good enough, you're old enough

Marcus Rashford was only given his big chance in the Man Utd first team when Anthony Martial picked up an injury during the warmup to a Europa League match and Louis Van Gaal added him to the squad as a late call-up. Rashford was the only available fit striker, scored on his debut at 18 years old, and was instantly considered good enough to be in match day squads. Is every potential young star's career a case of right place, right time, right manager? 

Liverpool's starting XI in the Champions League final 2018 had only two players (Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah) who were considered regular starters in that same competition when under the age of 21. 

The average age at which Liverpool's starting XI were considered a Champions League starter at any club was 22.3 years.

Real Madrid's XI was made up of players who were at that same level by the age of 19.5.

Are big clubs in Germany and Spain more able to cope with the mistakes a developing player will make than clubs in the uber-competitive Premier League?

Real Madrid's Champions League-winning players were playing close to that level when they were 20. If Hudson-Odoi is going to be a Champions League final standard of player, he needs to be starting domestic league games now.

Why patience might be key

Jesse Lingard didn't break into the Man Utd first team until he was 22. James Milner made his debut at 16 for Leeds but didn't play in the Champions League until he was 26. Luka Modric didn't play for a club in a top league until he was 23, transferring to Spurs from Dinamo Zagreb.

Perhaps all were ready for the top level when even younger but this is the danger for academy players at big clubs in England, where the coaching staff either can't see talent is ripe or, worse, don't trust their own judgement.

Compare Rashford's story to Paul Pogba's, who made three substitute appearances for Man Utd at the age of 18 in 2011/12 before moving to Juventus to get first team football. Juventus deemed Pogba ready immediately and instead of sitting on the bench at United, he won Serie A at 19 years old. 

Chelsea's latest big signing, Christian Pulisic, 20, is a similar player to Hudson-Odoi but has already played in 81 Bundesliga games for Borussia Dortmund, scoring 10 goals. Those two years of extra experience prompted Chelsea to pay £60million rather than start Hudson-Odoi and develop their own player. There is a commercial factor at play in signing a high-profile American player, but the purchase of Pulisic still sends a worrying message, especially at a club with such a poor record of bringing through youngsters.

Hudson-Odoi could even look across the dressing room for a perfect example of what could happen if he decides to stay. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is 23 and has still only managed to feature in 55 league games - only 31 of those have been for Chelsea, 24 were with Crystal Palace. 

Central midfield is a tough position to break into, even Modric was 23 before moving to Spurs. But Modric had made 94 league appearances and scored 26 goals playing in the Bosnian and Croatian leagues (with more games played in the Champions League) by that age - nearly double that of Loftus-Cheek.

If academy players aren't 'ready', a foreign player who has already has three years of lower/lesser league develpoment before age 21 is a better option for the first team. Mateo Kovacic is 24 and has been playing first team football since he was 16, first in Croatia, then Serie A, then La Liga. Loftus-Cheek could do his job but doesn't have the experience and on the evidence of this season, he hasn't done the job quite as well as Kovacic. So Loftus-Cheek remains benched.

If he was going to match the potential expected of him, Loftus-Cheek should be a starting midfield player for a Champions League level club by now. Instead, the fear is that he could become another Wayne Routledge, a hot prospect who was never actually good enough to make it at the elite level in the first place. 

Another English talent, Ademola Lookman, couldn't get in the Everton team after signing from Charlton, and forced a loan move to RB Leipzig in January 2017. Everton said they wanted him to develop in England, Lookman wasn't keen to wait and 11 Bundesliga games later, he'd scored five goals. Without that, he'd surely be sat on the bench this season instead of getting the game time that Marco Silva has afforded him (two starts, 10 substitute appearances, two assists).

Money ruins everything

The cut-throat nature of the Premier League - a competition with a top six, where the leading team can't turn up and expect to beat the bottom side any single week - simply doesn't allow for young players to develop and break through. 

Hudson-Odoi has already proven that he can do damage at Premier League level. Bayern Munich's interest in him may the catalyst Sarri needed to put trust in in those performances and start granting playing time despite his young age. Just like Van Gaal's Rashford revelation, circumstance may force Chelsea to unearth and polish a sparkling diamond rather than purchasing one ready-made from the shop.

Other wonderkids made the same step up at a similar age because they were good enough and were trusted. Federico Chiesa at Fiorentina played 27 games as an 18 year old, Mattijs De Ligt played 11 league games as a 17 year old for Ajax and was a captain at 18, while Raheem Sterling was superb for Liverpool as a 17 year old, playing 24 times in the 2012/13 season. All had different opportunities but all were good enough to take them.

Hudson-Odoi cannot afford to wait another year in the hope he is given that same opportunity - his time is now. Perhaps his patience will be rewarded with starts and Hudson-Odoi establishes himself a Champions League level player at Chelsea before he turns 19, just like the Real Madrid stars of 2018 did in their fledgling careers.

Much more likely is that Hudson-Odoi gets minutes off the bench and spends the rest of his time twiddling thumbs, endlessly learning from others on the training ground with no way of applying that knowledge. One day, during a 2-0 win over a mid-table club, Hudson-Odoi can look at his phone while sitting on the bench and follow the adventures of similarly talented wingers of his generation showcasing their skills elsewhere. Sancho will probably be at Euro 2020 - Hudson-Odoi is nowhere close.

The sooner Hudson-Odoi gets first team football, the better his career will be. Is Chelsea really the best place for that?

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